Analysis of predictors and outcomes of COVID-19 patients requiring ICU admission from COVID 19 (preprint)

BackgroundSevere Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is associated with high mortality. Although single centre intensive care units (ICU) have reported clinical characteristics and outcomes, no large scale multicentric study from India has been published. The present retrospective, multi-centre study was aimed to describe the predictors and outcomes of COVID-19 patients requiring ICU admission from COVID-19 Registry of Indian council of Medical Research (ICMR), India.MethodsProspectively collected data from multiple participating institutions was entered in the electronic National Clinical Registry of COVID 19. We enrolled patients aged>18 years with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring ICU admission between March 2020 and August 2021. Exclusion criteria were negative RT PCR, death within 24 hours of ICU admission, or patients with incomplete data in the registry Their demographic characteristics, laboratory variables, ICU severity indices, treatment strategies and outcomes were analysed.ResultsA total of 5865 patients, with mean age 56±15 years, with 3840/5865 (65.4%) men, were enrolled in the ICMR registry.. Overall mortality was 2535/5865 (43.5%). Non-survivors were older than survivors (58.2±15.4 years vs 53.6 ±14.7 years; P=0.001). Non-survivors had multiple comorbidities (n=1951, 52.9%) with hypertension (47.2%) and diabetes (45.6%) being the most common, higher creatinine (1.6 ± P=0.001, high D-dimer (1.56 vs 1.37, P=0.001), higher CT severity index (16.8±5.2 vs 13.5 ±5.47 ) compared to  survivors. Non survivors had longer hospital and ICU stay (P=0.001). On multivariate regression analysis, high NLR (HR 1.017, 95% CI 1.005- 1.029, P=0.001), high CRP (HR 1.008, 95% CI 1.006- 1.010, P=0.001), high D dimer ((HR 1.089, 95% CI 1.065- 1.113, P=0.001) were associated with mechanical ventilation while younger age, (HR 0.974, CI 0.965-0.983, p=0.001), high D dimer (HR-1.014, CI 1.001-1.027, P=0.035) and use of prophylactic LMWH (HR 0.647, CI 0.527-0.794, p=0.001) were independently associated with mortality. ConclusionIn this large retrospective study of 5865 critically ill COVID 19 patients admitted to ICU, overall mortality was 2535/5865 (43.5%). Age, high D dimer, CT Severity score and use of prophylactic LMWH were independently associated with mortality. 

Urban Tertiary Care Centre Experience of Characteristics of Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia (preprint)

IntroductionThe global pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and has since spread worldwide.[1] This study attempts to summarize current evidence regarding major inflammatory markers, severity predictors and its impact on outcome, which provide current clinical experience and treatment guidance for this novel coronavirus. MethodsThis is a retrospective observational study done at an urban teaching covid-19 designated hospital. Hospital data were analysed with aim of studying inflammatory markers, predictors and outcome. Patients were classified in Mild, Moderate, Severe & Critical categories of COVID cases. Their clinical parameters, laboratory investigations, radiological findings & Outcome measures were studied. Strength of association & correlation of those parameters with severity and in-hospital mortality were studied. ResultsA total 204 (N) patients were clinically classified into different severity groups, as per MOHFW and qCSI(quick Covid Severity Index) guidelines, as Mild (34), Moderate (56), Severe (39) and Critical (75). The mean(SD) age of the cohort was 55.1+13.2 years; 74.02% were male. Severe COVID-19 illness is seen more in patients more than 50 years of age. COVID-19 patients having IHD develop worse disease with excess early in-hospital mortality. Respiratory rate & Heart Rate on admission are correlated with severe and stormy disease. Among Inflammatory markers, on admission LDH, D-Dimer and CRP are related with severity and excess in-hospital death rate. ConclusionAdvanced age, male gender, IHD, Respiratory Rate & Heart Rate on admission were associated with severe covid-19 illness. S. Lactate Dehydrogenase & D-dimer was associated with severe covid-19 illness and early in-hospital death.

UVA radiation could be a significant contributor to sunlight inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Past experiments demonstrated SARS-CoV-2 inactivation by simulated sunlight; models have considered exclusively mechanisms involving UVB acting directly on RNA. However, UVA inactivation has been demonstrated for other enveloped RNA viruses, through indirect mechanisms involving the suspension medium. We propose a model combining UVB and UVA inactivation for SARS-CoV-2, which improves predictions by accounting for effects associated with the medium. UVA sensitivities deduced for SARS-CoV-2 are consistent with data for SARS-CoV-1 under UVA only. This analysis calls for experiments to separately assess effects of UVA and UVB in different media, and for including UVA in inactivation models. Key words: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, environmental persistence, sunlight, UVA, UVB, modeling, inactivation methods, photobiology

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from across Africa reveals potentially clinically relevant mutations. (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 is a betacoronavirus, the etiologic agent of the novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In December 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 began in Wuhan province of the Hubei district in China and rapidly spread across the globe. On March 11th, 2020, the World Health Organization officially designated COVID-19 as a pandemic. Across the continents and specifically in Africa, all index cases were travel related. Thus, it is crucial to compare COVID-19 genome sequences from the African continent with sequences from COVID-19 hotspots (including China, Brazil, Italy, United State of America and the United Kingdom). To identify if there are distinguishing mutations in the African SARS-CoV-2 genomes compared to genomes from other countries, including disease hotspots, we conducted in silico analyses and comparisons. Complete African SARS-CoV-2 genomes deposited in GISAID and NCBI databases as of June 2020 were downloaded and aligned with genomes from Wuhan, China and other SARS-CoV-2 hotspots. Using phylogenetic analysis and amino acid sequence alignments of the spike and replicase (NSP12) proteins, we searched for possible targets for vaccine coverage or potential therapeutic agents. Our results showed a similarity between the African SARS-CoV-2 genomes and genomes in countries including China, Brazil, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, France and the United States of America. This study shows for the first time, an in-depth analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 landscape across Africa and will potentially provide insights into specific mutations to relevant proteins in the SARS-CoV-2 genomes in African populations.

Convalescent plasma in the management of moderate COVID-19 in India: An open-label parallel-arm phase II multicentre randomized controlled trial (PLACID Trial) (preprint)

ObjectivesConvalescent plasma (CP) as a passive source of neutralizing antibodies and immunomodulators is a century-old therapeutic option used for the management of viral diseases. We investigated its effectiveness for the treatment of COVID-19. DesignOpen-label, parallel-arm, phase II, multicentre, randomized controlled trial. SettingThirty-nine public and private hospitals across India. ParticipantsHospitalized, moderately ill confirmed COVID-19 patients (PaO2/FiO2: 200-300 or respiratory rate > 24/min and SpO2 [≤] 93% on room air). InterventionParticipants were randomized to either control (best standard of care (BSC)) or intervention (CP + BSC) arm. Two doses of 200 mL CP was transfused 24 hours apart in the intervention arm. Main Outcome MeasureComposite of progression to severe disease (PaO2/FiO2< 100) or all-cause mortality at 28 days post-enrolment. ResultsBetween 22nd April to 14th July 2020, 464 participants were enrolled; 235 and 229 in intervention and control arm, respectively. Composite primary outcome was achieved in 44 (18.7%) participants in the intervention arm and 41 (17.9%) in the control arm [aOR: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.77]. Mortality was documented in 34 (13.6%) and 31 (14.6%) participants in intervention and control arm, respectively [aOR) 1.06 95% CI: -0.61 to 1.83]. InterpretationCP was not associated with reduction in mortality or progression to severe COVID-19. This trial has high generalizability and approximates real-life setting of CP therapy in settings with limited laboratory capacity. A priori measurement of neutralizing antibody titres in donors and participants may further clarify the role of CP in management of COVID-19. Trial registrationThe trial was registered with Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI); CTRI/2020/04/024775.